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What is driving Japan's crime increase?

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Recently there has been a lot of talk in the Japanese about rising crime rates- and, most worryingly, rates of major violent crimes (凶悪犯) such as murder, muggings, arson and rape, which are up 73% since 2021. The uptick has garnered considerable media attention , and as a result the public feels much less safe. In an annual National Police Agency Poll , the number of citizens who felt Japan has good public safety from crime has fallen from 75% in 2021 to a record low of just 56.4% in 2025.  What's going on? Is Japan's internationally famous social order falling apart?  In this post I'll look at the major categories of crime that Japan's police agency gives crime rates for- Total reported crimes, major crimes such as mentioned above, "Other crimes of aggression" such as assaults, injury, threats and blackmail, "intellectual crimes" (basically scams), and finally common theft. All of the following charts were made using data from the National Police Ag...
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On Japan's immigrant population and their crime rates

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Japan's big drops in crime since 2002 are largely attributable to its aging population. Excess crime by specific foreign residents are largely attributable to their much younger ages. Much has been said about Japan's plummeting birth rate and aging population, to the point readers of current events in Japan seem to have become numb to it. People have been made well aware of how the country's demographics will affect its debt and and social security payments in the future, but those issues still seem far away and abstract for most people. What many people don't realize is how much Japan's aging population affects the country right now , and in ways you might not expect. One such way is Japan's crime rate, which, despite a slight uptick post-pandemic (more on that in a future post), has fallen dramatically since its peak in 2002: ( Source ) Even less explored is the way attempts to fight these demographics through immigration could turn the clock back in Japan not...
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