What is driving Japan's crime increase?

Recently there has been a lot of talk in the Japanese about rising crime rates- and, most worryingly, rates of major violent crimes (凶悪犯) such as murder, muggings, arson and rape, which are up 73% since 2021. The uptick has garnered considerable media attention, and as a result the public feels much less safe. In an annual National Police Agency Poll, the number of citizens who felt Japan has good public safety from crime has fallen from 75% in 2021 to a record low of just 56.4% in 2025. 

What's going on? Is Japan's internationally famous social order falling apart? 

In this post I'll look at the major categories of crime that Japan's police agency gives crime rates for- Total reported crimes, major crimes such as mentioned above, "Other crimes of aggression" such as assaults, injury, threats and blackmail, "intellectual crimes" (basically scams), and finally common theft. All of the following charts were made using data from the National Police Agency's Annual Reports.

Overall Reported Crimes

Before looking at the more recent year on year changes, it's important to keep the proper perspective. Japan's overall crime rates have fallen steadily since their peak over 20 years ago, and even at its "worst" the country was unusually safe by international standards.

You'll notice a sharper dip around 2020-21. That was a common phenomenon around the world due to covid lockdowns. Also common around the world was a snapback after the lockdowns ended. 

Japan shares that trend with the rest of the world too. But while crime rates are roughly at pre-pandemic levels now, it looks like Japan's 20 year streak of falling crime rates could be over. Let's look at the individual categories.

Flat since 2019: Major Violent Crimes (With one big exception)

If we look at major violent crimes the results are more striking. Rather than going back to pre-pandemic times, they take Japan back at least 15 years. Murder, muggings, arson and rape may still be relatively rare, but nobody wants to see sharp increases like this happening so quickly, so it's understandable why people are concerned and are beginning to wonder what went wrong.

If we look at the major violent crime categories individually, it becomes clearer what is driving the spike in this category:

Sexual assaults are skyrocketing. But there's a likely reason this is occurring now- this law didn't exist in its current form until 2017.

Before 2017, the bar for having a rape accusation taken seriously and counted in the major crime stats (let alone result in a conviction) was very high. Anything short of vaginal intercourse didn't qualify at all, and even then the accuser had to prove lack of consent, which was a very high bar to pass. Many victims of date rape and other rape by acquaintances probably didn't even bother reporting it.

Therefore, it seems likely that the recent sudden uptick in sexual assault complaints is a "Sweden effect", where such crimes can appear to be high despite a safer country than before, due to a lower bar for bringing charges and a population more aware of its rights.

Mostly Flat Historically: Other Crimes of Aggression

Next we have the lesser crimes of aggression- "assault"/暴行 (slapping, pushing or spitting on someone; basically any aggressive physical contact that doesn't result in injury), "injury"/傷害 (any assault that requires medical attention) , threats and blackmail. The trend for these since 2003 is less clear.

Blackmail is down sharply since 2003, which is probably attributable to the decline of the Yakuza / Organized crime. Injury is down too, though it has creeped up a bit since the low of 2021.

Assault and threats have been roughly flat since about 2006 and 2012 respectively. As neither involve actual harm to the victim these are decidedly lesser crimes, and I suspect these could have stayed relatively high due to growing intolerance among the public for crime in any form. In rougher times, perhaps a punk threatening someone from across the street might have caused them to run and just feel fortunate they got away. Today, the victim or bystanders may be more likely to get out their cell phones and call the police. Ditto if someone dares to shove someone else.

Way up since 2019: Intellectual Crime (Scams)

Financial fraud/scams have seen two big trends in the last 25 years: first, a big surge in the early 2000s followed by a dropoff through to 2010, a flatlining, and finally a big new uptick since the pandemic.

The spike around 2003 is likely attributable to the use of prepaid "burner" cell phones by criminals in that era, which let organized crime call and threaten or fool victims without fear of being traced. In April 2005 the "Mobile Phone Improper Use Prevention Act" (携帯音声通信事業の適正化に関する法律) came into effect, and likely not coincidentally crimes of this category steadily fell thereafter.

Up Since 2019: Non-Violent Theft

Our final major category is non-violent theft- stuff like Shoplifting, bicycle theft, pickpocketing and burglary:

While they are still pretty low historically, there was a big increase from 2021 to 2024 (300 per 100k vs 400 per 100k), this is likely just due to comparisons to lockdown times. While up since then, non-violent theft rates are about even with where they were before the pandemic began. 

Summary

Here's the data for key years, and a summary of what types of crimes have risen, fallen or stayed flat since pre-pandemic:

As can be seen, 

• Major violent crime rates appear to be driven by re-writing of sexual assault laws that broadens the number of assaults that can be put in this category, and greater public awareness of what constitutes a sexual assault.
• While up from 2021, thefts remain below their pre-covid level.
• Finally, Scams are up a good deal since pre-covid, which could signify crime's shift to online.

While no level of crime is acceptable, fears about Japan's public safety appear to be overblown.